FxPro：黄金的苦难时代将继续下去

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据/事件风险

　　USD: Inflation and housing data the focus in the US today. The headline inflation rate is seen falling to 1.6% (from 2.0%), with core prices holding steady at 2.0%.

　　GBP: Inflation data is the main risk for sterling. If anything, the risks are to the upside from the expected 2.8% headline reading. This would put some fresh downward pressure on the pound, which has so far held up relatively well given the volatility being seen elsewhere.

　　EUR: The ZEW data the bigger focus for the single currency, especially for Germany. Sentiment is seen falling from the March reading of 48.5 (to 41.0), with a bigger fall likely to weigh on the euro.

　　美元：通胀和房屋数据是美国今天的焦点。新闻报道通胀率(从2.0%)下降到了1.6%，核心价格稳定在2.0%。

　　英镑：通胀数据是英镑主要的风险。如果发生任何事情，风险就会出现在预期的新闻报道利率2.8%的上行方面。这会对英镑造成新的下行压力，而由于其他地区的波动英镑现在保持得相对较好。

　　欧元：欧洲经济研究中心的数据对于欧元是比较大的关注点，特别是对于德国。市场情绪从三月的读数48.5下降了(到41.0)，如果下降更加厉害的话可能会对欧元造成影响。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日想法

　　Although we’ve seen a modest recovery in the Asia session, the collapse in the gold price over the past two sessions could well have further to run (see Golden Rules Gone for more). The issue is that, as much as there can be rules for valuing gold, they’ve all pretty much broken down in the past few months and at the moment we’ve not seen anything else to replace them. For example, the ‘currency debasement’ argument does not have legs, the major central banks having expanded their balance sheets by a further 12% over the past 6 months, whilst gold prices have fallen by 16% over the same period. The tough times for Gold are set to continue.

　　虽然亚洲交易期内出现温和的恢复，过去两个交易期内金价的崩溃可能会继续(见文章《黄金规则的消失》)。其中问题就是，虽然评估黄金的规则要多少有多少，但这些规则都在过去几个月之内失败了。而目前还没有任何的替代规则。例如，“货币贬值”理论站不住脚，主要央行的资产负债在过去六个月内进一步扩张了12%，而金价在同一时期下降了16%。黄金的苦难时代将继续下去。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　AUD: The latest RBA minutes were still keeping the door open to further rate cuts. The Aussie was already under pressure on Monday, briefly touching 1.03 by the end of the day, allowing the minutes to be largely ignored. The price action on gold is also undermining higher beta currencies such as the Aussie.

　　JPY: The Asia session has seen a modest recovery in USDJPY from the low at 95.80. For now, the momentum for a sustained push above 100 appears to be lacking.

　　EUR: The single currency, at least in EURUSD terms, is a bystander to the volatility being seen elsewhere, with hold above 1.30 the initial focus.

　　澳元：最新的澳洲联储会议纪要仍然对进一步削减利率敞开了大门。澳元周一已经处在压力之下，在这天的结束时到了1.03，这让会议纪要被大部分无视了。黄金方面的价格变动也破坏了高风险货币，例如澳元，的局面。

　　日元：亚洲交易期内美元日元出现温和的恢复，从低点95.80恢复了过来。目前，要突破到100以上的势头看起来还不存在。

　　欧元：欧元，至少从欧元美元方面来看，对于其他地区的波动还只是个旁观者，还在1.30这个初始的焦点之上。

　　FX Alerts

　　STERLING SOFTER ON CPI

　　英镑由于 CPI 而软化

　　16/04/13 @ 08:36 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130416/yingbang-yin-cpi-ruanhua

　　GBPUSD slightly softer to 1.5290 (10 pips lower) after CPI and PPI data broadly as expected. CPI held steady at 2.8%, but core rate nudged up to 2.4%.

　　随着与预期差不多一致的 CPI 和 PPI 数据公布后，英镑美元轻微软化，到了1.5290(下降了10个pip)。CPI 稳定在2.8%，但是核心利率上涨到了2.4%。

　　FX Alerts

　　EURUSD SOFTER ON ZEW

　　欧元美元由于 ZEW 的数据而软化

　　16/04/13 @ 09:07 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130416/ouyuan-meiyuan-yin-zew-ruanhua

　　EURUSD 10 pips softer to 1.3040 after weaker than expected ZEW data for Germany. EZ CPI held steady at 1.7%.

　　欧洲经济研究中心(ZEW)发布的德国数据比预期要疲软，导致欧元美元下降了10个pip，到了1.3040。EZ CPI 稳定在1.7%。