FxPro：日元针对美元一直在疲软

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　ALL: Be alert for comments from officials during G20 meetings ahead of IMF meetings over the weekend. As mentioned yesterday, we don’t expect any substantial change from the tone adopted in February, which amounted to “do what you want, so long as it is not specifically targeting the currency” and comments from Japan have pretty much confirmed this.

　　CAD: The CPI data today is expected to see the inflation rate fall from 1.2% to 1.1%, with core rate holding steady at 1.4%. The CAD has been underperforming of late, with firmer CPI needed to aim for a push back below 1.02 on USDCAD.

　　所有：要注意周末国际货币基金组织会议之前20国集团会议上众多官员的言论。正如昨天提到的，我们不认为二月份的趋势会有太大改变，这种趋势就是“做你想做的事情，只要不是特别针对货币”。而日本的言论也很大程度上确认了这一点。

　　加元：今天的CPI 数据可能会导致通胀率从1.2％下降到1.1%，而核心利率则稳定在1.4%。加元最近表现不好，而美元加元要下降到1.02之下的话，CPI 数据必须更加稳定。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　The yen has been weakening vs. the dollar for most of the week, with the latest impetus coming from the latest comments from Finance Minister Aso. He confirmed what we had suspected, namely that the G20 were not going to oppose the latest policies to revive inflation in Japan on the grounds that they were aimed at weakening the currency. This has allowed USDJPY to move towards the 99.00 level overnight, although the move is more a sign of relief rather than a rush for the exits. As we’ve intimated before, there’s a sense that we need to start seeing the data move the Bank of Japan’s way. Of course, it’s far too early to expect the inflation data to start moving higher, but the initial impact on confidence and the feed through to wage demands will be worth watching in the coming weeks and months.

　　这周大部分时间内，日元针对美元一直在疲软，而背后的推力则来自日本财政大臣Aso 最近发表的评论。他确认了我们怀疑过的事情，也就是说20国集团不会反对日本复生通胀的最新政策，因为这些政策的目的就是让日元疲软。这也让美元日元在前一天朝着99.00前进，虽然这种变动更多是一种缓解的迹象，而不是匆忙退出的迹象。正如我们此前提到的，我们感觉到需要让数据以日本银行的方式来运动。当然，现在通胀要高涨还为时尚早，但是对信心的初步影响以及如何从工资需求中解脱在未来几周甚至几个月之中都值得关注。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　JPY: The sense is that the yen is not going to get any grief from G20 leaders, so the currency has duly breathed a sigh of relief.

　　Gold: Watching to see if the overnight move above $1,400 is held, as gold will look a little vulnerable if this is not sustained. Certainly there is not yet the sense that there were many on the sidelines waiting for better levels to get it. At present, it appears that bruised egos abound.

　　AUD:Steadily climbing during the Asia session towards the 1.0350 area, just pipped by the Kiwi to be the strongest performer on the majors. Once again, the Aussie defying the critics.

　　日元：感觉就是20国集团的领导者不会让日元受到困扰，因此日元也松了一口气。

　　黄金：在关注前一天突破到1400以上的变动是否能保持住，因为如果不能保持住的话黄金会变得有些脆弱。当然，还没出现众多持观望态度的人在等待情况变好的局面。目前看起来到处都显得伤痕累累。

　　澳元：在亚洲交易期内稳定的爬升到了1.0350区域，因为新元的缘故澳元成为主要货币中表现最好的。澳元再次无视了批评的言论。

　　FX Alerts

　　CABLE PUSHING HIGHER

　　英镑美元走高

　　19/04/13@ 08:42 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130419/yingbang-meiyuan-zougao

　　Cable above 1.5350 during the European session, with this largely an order-driven market, rather than one reacting to news flow. For the yen, the overnight weakening being followed through during the European session USDJPY holding above the 99.00 area.

　　英镑美元在欧洲交易期内到了1.5350之上，这主要是因为市场为订单所驱动，而不是受到新闻的影响。对于日元，在欧洲交易期内跟进的是前一天的疲软。而美元日元维持在99.00区域之上。

　　FX Alerts

　　FITCH DOWNGRADES UK TO 'AA+'

　　惠誉将英国降级到“AA＋”

　　19/04/13@ 16:40 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130419/huiyu-jiang-yingguo-jiangji-dao-aa

　　UK credit standing took a further blow when Fitch Ratings became the second international agency to strip the country of its top-notch credit rating.

　　英国的信用评级进一步受到打击，因为惠誉评级成为第二个剥夺英国顶级信用评级的国际机构。