FxPro：增长是必要的

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　USD:The existing home sales not a major one for the dollar, unless it’s way off expectations. There has been a steady trend of improvement in the data, with the 5mln per month level expected to be seen today, which would be highest level of monthly sales since late 2009.

　　美元：现存的房屋销售数据不是美元主要的风险，除非超出预期许多。这个数据最近一直以稳定的脚步在改善，今天有可能出现每月五百万的水平，这是自2009年以来月最高水平。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　The consensus from international leaders in Washington over the weekend was the need for growth. This is all well and good, but it generally (although not perfectly) goes against concerns about rising government debt and the need for austerity. Concerns regarding the growth momentum globally have increased of late, which is one of the reasons why we’ve seen the Aussie under pressure over the past 2 weeks. However, in Europe, the German Finance Minister Schaeulbe warned not to expect much from Europe in the coming years. One of the reasons for this is making the reforms to spur growth, as Germany did ten years ago, take time and are that much harder to do during the bad times. For FX, this has once again put pressure on the Aussie, which has been trapped in a broad (1.02 – 1.06 range) for nearly 9 months now. But as we’ve said before, we’re in a different world now to “risk-on/risk-off”, so at the same time the potential for a weaker yen remains in place, with the 100 level on USDJPY close to being breached overnight. For now, the Aussie weakness should provide transitory, whilst the yen is a bigger structural shift towards a weaker currency.

　　周末在华盛顿的国际领袖们的共识就是增长是必要的。这当然很好，但通常情况下(虽然不完美)却与政府债务上涨和紧缩的需求相违背。对于全球增长的势头的关注到目前为止已经增长了不少，这也是过去两周以来澳元处于压力之下的原因之一。但是在欧洲，德国财长Schaeulbe 警告说未来几年欧洲的情况不容乐观。原因之一就是这种情况会让改革带动增长。对于外汇来说，这种情况再次给澳元以压力，到目前为止澳元已经有九个月时间陷于一个较宽的区间之内(1.02-1.06)。但正如我们此前说过的，现在的大局面已经不是“风险开启／关闭”了，因此在同一时间内日元疲软的可能性还是存在，而前一天美元日元方面已经接近突破100的区域。目前，澳元的疲软应该时暂时的，而日元疲软则是一种更大的结构性转变。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　JPY: The yen taking further impetus from the lack of G20 opposition to its latest policy measures. USDJPY stopped just short of the 100 level during Asia trade. This followed on from Friday’s move when PM Kuroda essentially pre-empted the sentiments coming out of Washington.

　　Gold: Very slowly clawing back some of the lost ground and managing to close above the $1,400 level on Friday. This should encourage some bulls to re-enter the market in a tentative way.

　　GBP:Found a decent bid in the early part of the European session on Friday, with cable pushing up to 1.5350. The big focus is with the Q1 GDP data on Thursday of this week, where expectation is for marginal increase of 0.1%. Negative would mean UK has entered technical recession again, which would weigh on the pound. Limited impact from Fitch downgrade from AAA.

　　AUD:The Aussie remains trapped in a wider range and the recent price action has further confirmed this. In the past two weeks the Aussie has moved from near the top (1.06) and is now not that far from the bottom. The main factor driving this trend are concerns regarding global growth, together with the recent slowdown in China.

　　日元：由于20国集团没有反对日本最新的政策措施，日元获得了更多的原动力。亚洲交易期内美元日元接近100这个水平。周五日本首相Kuroda 抢了华盛顿的风头之后这种情况仍然在继续。

　　黄金：非常缓慢的收复了一些失地并在周五努力想要达到1400美元之上。这应该会鼓励一些做多的人试探性的进入市场。

　　英镑：周五在欧洲交易期早些时候出现一个显著的竞价趋势，英镑美元爬升到1.5350。这周较大的关注点在于周四发布的第一季度GDP 数据，预期会有0.1%的增长。如果出现负增长就意味着英国已经再次进入技术上的衰退期，从而对英镑产生影响。而惠誉将英国从三A降级的影响有限。

　　澳元：澳元仍然陷于一个较宽的区域内，而最近的价格变动进一步确定了这个情况。过去的两周内澳元已经离开了顶点(1.06)，现在离开底部已经不远了。而造成这个趋势的主要因素就是对于全球增长的关注，以及对中国最近增长放缓的关注。